Aligning national and local data to predict clinic non-attendance in adolescent and young adult rheumatology using machine learning model

ObjectivesNon-attendance of scheduled hospital appointments represents a major issue affecting service effectiveness, efficiency and quality of care costing the NHS over £1billion annually. This impact is even more detrimental at a time where the NHS is experiencing record high waiting times in the peri- COVID-19 pandemic era.Rather than a reactive model of discharging patients for nonattending their appointments, we propose a proactive model identifying patients at risk of not showing up and provide them with right support at the right time. This approach is especially important for vulnerable population including young people (YP) due to the complex interplay between developmental, socio-economic factors can impact significantly on their medical care.The increasing use of electronic health record systems (EHRS) and data availability creates opportunities to develop risk scores for specific patient populations.In this study, we aim to develop a machine learning approach to develop a complex, multi-dimensional predictive model to identify YP at risk of clinic nonattendance.MethodsUniversity College London Hospital (UCLH) switched to a new EHRS in April 2019 . We extracted data on outpatient Adolescent and Young Adult Rheumatology (AYAR) between 2019 -2022.Our primary outcome was nonattendance of a scheduled appointment.Our Predictor variables were defined after literature review, consultation with clinical and operational teams. We extracted data on 67 predictors of nonattendance. These variables are broadly divided into demographics (e.g, Age, Sex, ethnicity) and index of multiple deprivation (IMD) extracted from office of national statistics (ONS) database. We also included service utilisation history (e.g., previous history of clinic non-attendance.), appointment information (month, day, time, clinic codes), and patient engagement (e.g., active in MyChart [ online patient portal]).Using data from 11602 outpatient appointments in (AYAR) clinics at UCLH, we built and assessed the performance of a predictive model as to whether a YP would not attend a scheduled outpatient appointment. We used logistic regression analysis to fit and assess the Model built. We evaluated its fit based on discrimination and calibration.ResultsWe identified a total of 1517 clinic non-attendance out of total of 11602 (13.1%) appointment.Female/male ratio was 2.03 in non attendance group as compared to 2.33 in total clinic population.In terms of age group, 10% (606/5547) of clinics booked for YP aged 14–18 were not attended as compared to 15% (651/4282 ) in those aged [19–24].Feature engineering analysis revealed that the most significant factors were IMD followed by distance, previous history of Non-attendance, age group and appointment hour.ConclusionsAiming to identify YP at risk of Non-attendance, we used a step-by-step approach to build a model that can be applied using EHR and IMD data at the point of care. High proportion of YP nonattending their appointments were from deprived areas.Accurate stratification of non-attendance risk can provide us with unique opportunity for preventative interventions, supporting to most vulnerable YP and improve the use of resources within the wider system

COVID-19 perniosis, a differential diagnosis to consider in adolescent patients presenting with chilblain-like lesions

Background/Aims Chilblain-like lesions (perniosis) have been reported frequently during COVID-19 pandemic in children and adolescents with no history of exposure to cold temperatures or underlying autoimmune conditions. Patients with these skin changes reported mild COVID-19 symptoms or previous contact with confirmed COVID-19 cases before they became symptomatic. In the majority of cases, a causal relationship between SARS-CoV-2 infection and chilblain-like lesion has not been proven. Methods Retrospective review of patients with chilblain-like lesions, possibly secondary to SARS-CoV-2 infection, presenting to a tertiary Adolescent Rheumatology service between January and August 2021. Results We identified five, male, adolescent patients (mean age, 16 years old) who presented with new onset of chilblain-like lesions affecting fingers, toes and heels in December 2020, which coincided with the peak of second wave of COVID-19 infection. One month prior to skin changes occurrence, 3 out of 5 patients experienced mild respiratory COVID-19-like symptoms and the rest of the patients were asymptomatic but were in contact with COVID-19 positive cases following outbreaks in schools. 1 of 3 symptomatic patients had a positive COVID-19 PCR test prior to skin manifestations. 2 out of 4 patients with heel lesions had deep, full thickness skin loss heel ulcers and 2 of 5 patients had superficially ulcerated lesions on a finger and toes, respectively, resulting in inability to attend school. None of the patients had any other symptoms or signs to suggest an underlying autoimmune connective tissue disorder. Demographics, clinical features and serological data are summarised in Table 1. One patient underwent a biopsy of heel ulcer which was histologically consistent with perniosis. In two patients (40%) chilblain like lesions resolved spontaneously within 2 months. Three patients (60%), with progressive ulcerated lesions, required various combinations of treatments with aspirin, calcium channel blockers (nifedipine), topical or oral steroids and hydroxychloroquine with complete resolution of symptoms within 6 months. Conclusion Chilblain-like lesions, including heel involvement associated with mildly symptomatic COVID-19 infection, have been reported before. Our mini-case series raises awareness of ulcerating chilblain like lesions possibly secondary to COVID-19 in adolescent patients, which require early recognition and instigation of treatment leading to better patient’s outcomes. P167 Table 1 Demographics, clinical, laboratory findings of patientsCaseAgeLesion locationCOVID-19 symptomsSARS-CoV-2 PCR / SARS-CoV-2 AbAutoimmune profile/ complement levelsTreatment/ skin symptoms resolution (months)116Fingers, toes, heelsNoNA/ NegativeANA positive (1:80) ENA negative anti-dsDNA normal, C3, C4 normalAspirin, prednisolone, nifedipine, hydroxychloroquine /6216fingers heels, toesNoNA/ NegativeANA negativePrednisolone, nifedipine/6318Toes, heelsrespiratoryPositive/NAANA negativeNil/1416Fingers, toesrespiratoryNegative/ NegativeANA positive (1:320) ENA negative anti- dsDNA normal C3, C4 normalNil/2516Fingers, toes, heelsrespiratoryNA/ NegativeANA negativenifedipine/6 NA: not available, PCR: polymerase chain reaction, SARS-CoV-2: severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Disclosure N. Gak: None. V. Choida: None. M. Leandro: None. D. Sen: None. C. Ciurtin: None. C. Fisher: None.

Marital Status and Gender Differences as Key Determinants of COVID-19 Impact on Wellbeing, Job Satisfaction and Resilience in Health Care Workers and Staff Working in Academia in the UK During the First Wave of the Pandemic.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented global public health crisis that continues to exert immense pressure on healthcare and related professional staff and services. The impact on staff wellbeing is likely to be influenced by a combination of modifiable and non-modifiable factors. Objectives: The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the self-reported wellbeing, resilience, and job satisfaction of National Health Service (NHS) and university staff working in the field of healthcare and medical research. Methods: We conducted a cross sectional survey of NHS and UK university staff throughout the COVID-19 pandemic between May-November 2020. The anonymous and voluntary survey was disseminated through social media platforms, and via e-mail to members of professional and medical bodies. The data was analyzed using descriptive and regression (R) statistics. Results: The enjoyment of work and satisfaction outside of work was significantly negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic for all of staff groups independent of other variables. Furthermore, married women reporting significantly lower wellbeing than married men (P = 0.028). Additionally, the wellbeing of single females was significantly lower than both married women and men (P = 0.017 and P < 0.0001, respectively). Gender differences were also found in satisfaction outside of work, with women reporting higher satisfaction than men before the COVID-19 pandemic (P = 0.0002). Conclusion: Our study confirms that the enjoyment of work and general satisfaction of staff members has been significantly affected by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Interestingly, being married appears to be a protective factor for wellbeing and resilience but the effect may be reversed for life satisfaction outside work. Our survey highlights the critical need for further research to examine gender differences using a wider range of methods.

Self-perceived disease activity was the strongest predictor of COVID-19 pandemic-related concerns in young people with autoimmune rheumatic diseases, irrespective of their gender, with females reporting higher concerns.

Objectives: We report the results of a pilot young patient survey that targeted patients with JSLE and JDM, exploring well-being, resilience and general concern about the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic as well as self-assessment of disease activity. Methods: The survey was completed anonymously by patients who had been approached via the automatically generated hospital database between June and December 2020. In addition to disease characteristics, geographic location, education and employment level, we explored young patients' resilience, mood and feelings, mental well-being, self-assessed disease activity and general COVID-19 concerns using validated tools and visual analogue scales. Results: This pilot study found that self-perceived disease activity was the strongest predictor of COVID-19 concern, irrespective of gender, employment and education status or well-being and resilience. Generalized concerns regarding the COVID-19 pandemic were significantly higher in females, although their self-reported DASs were comparable to male respondents. Conclusion: Our findings highlight a gender bias in the generalized concern related to the COVID-19 pandemic, irrespective of the examined potential confounders. This suggests the need for further research around young patient self-reported outcomes outside hospital visits, especially in the context of gender differences and potential challenges of future pandemics.

Favorable antibody responses to human coronaviruses in children and adolescents with autoimmune rheumatic diseases.

BACKGROUND: Differences in humoral immunity to coronaviruses, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), between children and adults remain unexplained, and the effect of underlying immune dysfunction or suppression is unknown. Here, we sought to examine the antibody immune competence of children and adolescents with prevalent inflammatory rheumatic diseases, juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM), and juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE) against the seasonal human coronavirus (HCoV)-OC43 that frequently infects this age group. METHODS: Sera were collected from JIA (n = 118), JDM (n = 49), and JSLE (n = 30) patients and from healthy control (n = 54) children and adolescents prior to the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic. We used sensitive flow-cytometry-based assays to determine titers of antibodies that reacted with the spike and nucleoprotein of HCoV-OC43 and cross-reacted with the spike and nucleoprotein of SARS-CoV-2, and we compared them with respective titers in sera from patients with multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children and adolescents (MIS-C). FINDINGS: Despite immune dysfunction and immunosuppressive treatment, JIA, JDM, and JSLE patients maintained comparable or stronger humoral responses than healthier peers, which was dominated by immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies to HCoV-OC43 spike, and harbored IgG antibodies that cross-reacted with SARS-CoV-2 spike. In contrast, responses to HCoV-OC43 and SARS-CoV-2 nucleoproteins exhibited delayed age-dependent class-switching and were not elevated in JIA, JDM, and JSLE patients, which argues against increased exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Consequently, autoimmune rheumatic diseases and their treatment were associated with a favorable ratio of spike to nucleoprotein antibodies. FUNDING: This work was supported by a Centre of Excellence Centre for Adolescent Rheumatology Versus Arthritis grant, 21593, UKRI funding reference MR/R013926/1, the Great Ormond Street Children's Charity, Cure JM Foundation, Myositis UK, Lupus UK, and the NIHR Biomedical Research Centres at GOSH and UCLH. This work was supported by the Francis Crick Institute, which receives its core funding from Cancer Research UK, the UK Medical Research Council, and the Wellcome Trust.

Male sex identified by global COVID-19 meta-analysis as a risk factor for death and ITU admission.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, exhibits differences in morbidity and mortality between sexes. Here, we present a meta-analysis of 3,111,714 reported global cases to demonstrate that, whilst there is no difference in the proportion of males and females with confirmed COVID-19, male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission (OR = 2.84; 95% CI = 2.06, 3.92) and higher odds of death (OR = 1.39; 95% CI = 1.31, 1.47) compared to females. With few exceptions, the sex bias observed in COVID-19 is a worldwide phenomenon. An appreciation of how sex is influencing COVID-19 outcomes will have important implications for clinical management and mitigation strategies for this disease.

Preexisting and de novo humoral immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in humans.

Zoonotic introduction of novel coronaviruses may encounter preexisting immunity in humans. Using diverse assays for antibodies recognizing SARS-CoV-2 proteins, we detected preexisting humoral immunity. SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein (S)-reactive antibodies were detectable using a flow cytometry-based method in SARS-CoV-2-uninfected individuals and were particularly prevalent in children and adolescents. They were predominantly of the immunoglobulin G (IgG) class and targeted the S2 subunit. By contrast, SARS-CoV-2 infection induced higher titers of SARS-CoV-2 S-reactive IgG antibodies targeting both the S1 and S2 subunits, and concomitant IgM and IgA antibodies, lasting throughout the observation period. SARS-CoV-2-uninfected donor sera exhibited specific neutralizing activity against SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-2 S pseudotypes. Distinguishing preexisting and de novo immunity will be critical for our understanding of susceptibility to and the natural course of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

COVID-19 infection in children and adolescents.

The COVID-19 pandemic has predominantly affected the adult population. The disease is less well-defined in children (≤18 years). This review summarises the current understanding of the epidemiology, clinical manifestations, and management of COVID-19 in children and adolescents. The prevalence of COVID-19 is significantly lower in children than adults, but paediatric disease is likely underdiagnosed as a result of the high numbers of asymptomatic or mild cases. Children are vulnerable to family cluster outbreaks, but are unlikely to be index cases within a household. Vertical transmission or breast milk transmission are yet to be proven. Between 10 and 90% of paediatric COVID-19 cases are asymptomatic. Symptomatic cases typically present with mild symptoms, including cough, fever and sore throat. Intensive care admission and mortality are rare. Paediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome temporally associated with COVID-19 is a rare, but severe, newly emerging phenotype. At present, there is no specific treatment for COVID-19 in adults or children; management is usually supportive. For severe or critical disease, including paediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome temporally associated with COVID-19, the decision to start antiviral or immunomodulatory therapy should be on a case-by-case basis; in the UK, this should be done within a clinical trial. Further research is needed into both the disease course and treatment of paediatric COVID-19.